Vaata esmaspäev, 1 august 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 213 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Aug 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792
(N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long
duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event
generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep,
and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792
underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has
remained the same. This region continues to exhibit
beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced
the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area
over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum
of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow
from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred
today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Augkuni 04 Aug
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Aug 111 Prognoositud 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 01 Aug 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Aug kuni 04 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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