Vaata reede, 24 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 24 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 175 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Flare activity
was limited to minor B-class x-ray events seen on the solar west
limb near S19. The source region for this activity is believed to
be from old Region 779 (S19 L=332). Region 780 (S08W30) underwent
continued decay and the region has become a simple BXO beta group.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The storm
conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole. The associated
solar wind speeds have been elevated to near 500 km/sec throughout
most of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. There
may be a slight chance of isolated minor storming conditions though
25 June due to the geoeffective coronal hole. Unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions are expected on 26 June as the coronal
hole wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels should return by 27 June.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Junkuni 27 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Jun 077 Prognoositud 25 Jun-27 Jun 080/080/080 90 päeva keskmine 24 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Jun 030/048 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Jun 015/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Jun kuni 27 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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