Vaata laupäev, 4 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 04 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 155 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 772 (S17W06) has
produced several C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The largest
was a C6/Sn at 03/2355 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 774 (N05W06)
and 775 (N12E75). Region 775 is possibly the return of old Region
759 which produced several C-class and some M-class events.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 772.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
The solar wind features indicate the increased geomagnetic activity
is associated with the possible onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions possible. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed stream, the influence of the M1 CME on 03 June, and the
activity from today's event at 23/2355 UTC.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Junkuni 07 Jun
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Jun 097 Prognoositud 05 Jun-07 Jun 100/105/110 90 päeva keskmine 04 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Jun kuni 07 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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