Vaata esmaspäev, 9 mai 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 May 09 2302 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 129 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 May 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S09W23) produced
five C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a C8 at 1103 UTC. The region has shown steady development during
the past 24 hours, especially in the leader spots. New Region 760
(S06W14) has been identified as a distinct region to the east of
758. Region 759 (N14E60) is the largest group on the disk with area
of 540 millionths but only managed to produce a B-class event. New
Region 761 (N04E61) was assigned today and is a small, H-type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days (10-12 May). There is a fair
chance for isolated M-class events from Region 758 or Region 759.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active for 08/2100-08/2400
UTC. Unsettled levels prevailed from 08/2400-09/0600 UTC, and
conditions were quiet for the remainder of the period. Solar wind
data show a steady decline in velocity, which was initially at about
730 km/s and decreased to about 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods at high
latitudes for the next 24 hours (10 May). Conditions should be
mostly unsettled for 11 May and quiet to unsettled for 12 May.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Maykuni 12 May
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 May 110 Prognoositud 10 May-12 May 110/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 09 May 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 May 038/064 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 May 010/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 May kuni 12 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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