Vaata teisipäev, 3 mai 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 May 03 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 123 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 May 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S07E63) was
responsible for a long duration C8 flare at 02/2248 UTC and an
associated CME. A very bright post eruption arcade was visible on
SXI and EIT imagery. Region 758's limb proximity is hindering a
full analysis, however, it appears to be a moderately complex
beta-gamma group. Later in the day, a partial halo CME was observed
on LASCO imagery at 03/1750 UTC. This is another in a series of
backsided CME's that have occurred since 30 April. None of the
CME's are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 756 (S07W38) or
758.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Maykuni 06 May
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 May 112 Prognoositud 04 May-06 May 110/110/105 90 päeva keskmine 03 May 092
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 May 006/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 May 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 May kuni 06 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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