Vaata reede, 25 märts 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Mar 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 084 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Mar 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 745 (N12E03) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 24/2344Z. This region is in a slow growth phase with
minor magnetic mixing. No other significant activity was observed on
the solar disk or limb.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Region 745.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes. The most disturbed geomagnetic conditions
followed short periods of southward IMF Bz to near -10 nT. A high
speed coronal hole stream rotated into a geoeffective position over
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed began the period at just over
400 km/s, but increased to near 700 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels. Minor storm periods
are possible at high latitudes on 26 March. Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with just isolated active periods are expected on
27 and 28 March as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Markuni 28 Mar
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Mar 082 Prognoositud 26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/080 90 päeva keskmine 25 Mar 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Mar 004/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/016 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 012/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Mar kuni 28 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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