Vaata esmaspäev, 21 märts 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Mar 21 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 080 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Mar 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Newly numbered
Region 745 (N12E54) produced the only C-class flare recorded this
period, a C2 event that occurred at 20/1547 UTC. This active region
currently appears to be a simply structured magnetic BXO beta group.
Region 743 (S08W84) appears to be in decay as the spot cluster
begins to exit the solar west limb. Region 744 (S12W13) underwent
growth in the sunspot area and appeared fairly quiescent throughout
the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak coronal
hole high speed stream appears to have passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 21/0800 UTC with maximum solar wind speeds reaching
650 km/s at approximately 20/0900 UTC. Following two hours of a
sustained southward Bz, a brief geoeffective period of active
conditions occurred between 20/1200 and 1500 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary crossing is expected to produce isolated active
conditions on 22 March. Isolated active conditions should persist
through 23 and 24 March due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Markuni 24 Mar
| Klass M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Mar 090 Prognoositud 22 Mar-24 Mar 085/080/080 90 päeva keskmine 21 Mar 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 006/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Mar kuni 24 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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