Vaata reede, 7 jaanuar 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 007 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jan 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78) was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January, impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 - 1500Z. A second disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at approximately 07/1900Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow from the CME activity on 04 and 05 January will continue the current disturbance through 08 January. Periods of minor to major storming are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09 January, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet conditions on 10 January.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Jankuni 10 Jan
Klass M05%05%05%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Jan 084
  Prognoositud   08 Jan-10 Jan  085/090/090
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Jan 105
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  018/020
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/040-012/020-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jan kuni 10 Jan
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%15%
Väike torm15%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%30%20%
Väike torm30%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm20%05%01%

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