Vaata neljapäev, 9 detsember 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Dec 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 344 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Dec 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 710 (S07E33) at 09/0012Z. Limited LASCO imagery revealed
what is likely a full halo CME associated with yesterday's long
duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption at 08/1959Z. No other
activity of note occurred.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a low C-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 09/0900 - 1200Z. A sustained period of southward Bz
produced the active conditions. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 10 December. Transient flow associated
with the long duration C2 flare and CME on 09 December is expected
to arrive on 11 December. Expect active to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods on 11 and 12 December. A return to
quiet to occasional active levels are expected by the end of the
three-day period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Deckuni 12 Dec
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Dec 087 Prognoositud 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/090 90 päeva keskmine 09 Dec 106
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Dec 010/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-020/020-030/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Dec kuni 12 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 45% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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