Vaata reede, 3 detsember 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Dec 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 338 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Dec 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 708 (N08W12)
produced an M1/2f flare at 03/0006UTC. This flare was associated
with a full-halo CME and significant radio emission that included a
520 sfu burst at 2695 MHz and type II/IV sweeps. The sunspot
configuration has remained relatively unchanged following the flare.
Region 707 (S14W49) was stable. New Region 709 (N06E61) was
numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional C-class flares are possible in Regions 707 and 708.
Another M-class flare may occur in 708.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The proton flux at greater than 10
MeV is enhanced as a result of the M1 flare discussed in Part IA but
has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event threshold. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index reported in Part V is estimated from Boulder
observations.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until the arrival of the CME associated with
the M1 flare discussed in Part IA. The arrival of the CME is
anticipated late on 04 Dec after which geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be at storm levels. A coronal hole high-speed stream is
also expected to begin to affect geomagnetic activity within the
same time period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may increase
with the arrival of the CME but is currently not expected to exceed
the event threshold.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Deckuni 06 Dec
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Dec 101 Prognoositud 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/095/090 90 päeva keskmine 03 Dec 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/015-035/040-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Dec kuni 06 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 25% | 10% |
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