Vaata neljapäev, 4 november 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 309 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Nov 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C6/Sf that occurred at 04/0905Z from Region 696 (N09E19). There was an associated Tenflare (210 sfu's) and a Type IV spectral radio sweep. A partial halo CME was also seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery shortly following this event which appears to have the potential of becoming geoeffective. There was a doubling of the sunspot area coverage and a magnetic delta structure is now visible in the trailing portion of the spot cluster. Region 693 (S15W31) remains impressive in appearance, although there were no recorded flares and some decay was observed during the day. There remains a weak delta structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot complex. Region 691 (N13W94) produced B and C class flares as this region exited the solar west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 693 and 696 are both capable of producing an isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels today. There was one active period at high latitudes occurring between 03/2100 and 2400Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled on 05 November. On 06 November the field is expected to see minor to major storming conditions due to the effects of the M5/Sn event that occurred yesterday producing a full halo CME from Region 696. A partial halo CME resulting from the long duration C6/Sf flare that occurred at 04/0905Z is expected to produce minor storming conditions late on the sixth, or early on 7 November.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Novkuni 07 Nov
Klass M60%60%60%
Klass X20%20%20%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       04 Nov 136
  Prognoositud   05 Nov-07 Nov  135/140/140
  90 päeva keskmine        04 Nov 109
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  008/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  012/015-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Nov kuni 07 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%40%40%
Väike torm15%35%25%
Suur-tõsine torm05%20%15%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%35%
Väike torm15%45%40%
Suur-tõsine torm05%20%15%

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