Vaata reede, 22 oktoober 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Oct 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 296 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Oct 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 687 (N10E39) produced an M2/1n flare at 22/0811Z that had an
associated Type IV radio sweep and a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity 521 km/sec. LASCO imagery depicted a CME
shortly following this event which may have a weak Earth-bound
component. The sunspot area in this region underwent strong growth
during the period, adding penumbral coverage to the trailing cluster
of spots in the group. Region 682 (S13W59) underwent little change
today and produced a single low level B-class flare. Region 684
(S05E01) has shown rapid growth in sunspot area and magnetic
structure during the period. Region 690 (N00E78) was numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 687 is capable of producing further
M-class flares and has a slight chance of producing an isolated
major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 and 24 October. A
chance of isolated active conditions may occur on 25 October due to
the potential for a glancing blow from the CME that resulted from
the M2/1n flare mentioned in IA.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Octkuni 25 Oct
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Oct 123 Prognoositud 23 Oct-25 Oct 125/130/125 90 päeva keskmine 22 Oct 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 004/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Oct kuni 25 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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