Vaata laupäev, 17 juuli 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jul 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 199 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jul 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 649 (S10E13)
continues to produce M and X-class flare activity. The largest
flare of the period was an X1/1f impulsive flare that occurred at
17/0757Z. Region 649 also produced an M2/1n event at 17/1651Z.
Minor radio bursts accompanied both flares. LASCO imagery shows
most of the CME plasma structure directed towards the eastern solar
hemisphere. Region 652 (N05E71) appears fairly ominous in white
light with 750 millionths of sunspot area. This region has produced
several C-class flares today and remains too close to the solar
eastern limb to determine accurate magnetic structure. Region 653
(S14E71) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. ACE
data indicates that a shock passed the instrument at approximately
16/2100Z. This transient is believed to have been the result of the
weak signature, full halo CME activity seen on 13 July. Higher
latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 17/0000 and
0300Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active to minor storm conditions with further transient
activity resulting from the multitude of major flares seen over the
past several days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Julkuni 20 Jul
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Jul 149 Prognoositud 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/145 90 päeva keskmine 17 Jul 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Jul 024/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jul kuni 20 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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