Vaata neljapäev, 3 juuni 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 155 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Jun 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621 (S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of 658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z, which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z. A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind the northwest limb.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active regions.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside by 5 June.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Junkuni 06 Jun
Klass M05%10%10%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       03 Jun 090
  Prognoositud   04 Jun-06 Jun  090/095/095
  90 päeva keskmine        03 Jun 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Jun  009/011
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Jun kuni 06 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%15%15%
Väike torm05%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%20%
Väike torm10%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%

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