Vaata laupäev, 22 mai 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 May 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 143 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 May 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 618 (S10E41)
produced an M2/Sf at 21/2352 UTC, as well as several C-class events.
The region has continued to grow and has formed a delta
configuration as leader penumbral spots of opposite polarity have
consolidated. Region 615 (N18W13) managed to produce a C1 event at
21/2220 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 617 (S10W60)
exhibited some minor surge activity but did not manage to produce
any flares.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected be mostly
low, but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated M-class
activity from Region 618.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds
continue to be elevated in the 450-500 km/s range.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (23 May), but
should transition to mostly quiet as the high speed solar wind is
expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd through the 24th.
Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional periods of
unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Maykuni 25 May
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 May 102 Prognoositud 23 May-25 May 100/100/095 90 päeva keskmine 22 May 105
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 May 006/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 May 010/013 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 010/012-005/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 May kuni 25 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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