Vaata esmaspäev, 26 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 117 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was only one C-class
event during the past 24 hours, a C2/Sf from Region 599 (N16E15) at
0242 UTC. Although this region emerged rapidly yesterday, the past
24 hours have see a noticeable decrease in spot area, flare
production, and overall brightness of the region. New Region 600
(N18W06) emerged on the disk today as a small beta-type sunspot
group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet conditions
prevailed early in the day as solar wind signatures showed a gradual
declining trend in solar wind velocity with very weak interplanetary
magnetic field, up until around 1520 UTC. Beginning around 1520 UTC
a compression wave followed by some transient flow was observed:
density, velocity, temperature and magnetic field all increased over
a few minutes, and Bz showed a rotation over 2-3 hours from +5 to
around -7 nT. The geomagnetic field responded by an increase to
unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours (27
April). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail for the
second and third days (28-29 April).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Aprkuni 29 Apr
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 Apr 100 Prognoositud 27 Apr-29 Apr 100/095/090 90 päeva keskmine 26 Apr 107
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 Apr 007/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Apr kuni 29 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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