Vaata laupäev, 24 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 115 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 597, which has
rotated beyond west limb at latitude S08, produced an M1 flare at
23/2112 UTC. The region produced numerous additional C-class flares
through around 1400 UTC, but is now behind the limb. Newly numbered
Region 599 (N14E51) emerged on the disk and grew steadily. The
region had an area of 120 millionths with mature penumbra on the
leader and trailer by the time of forecast issue (24/2200 UTC). The
group has been producing frequent upper level B-class and lower
level C-class flares. Region 596 (S09W21) continues to be the
largest group on the disk but was stable and appears to be decaying.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 599 is expected to be the most productive group, although
Region 596 might contribute some activity. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period at high latitudes between 0900-1200 UTC.
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated with values running
between 420 to 480 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (25 April).
Conditions should decline to mostly unsettled levels at all
latitudes for the second and third days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Aprkuni 27 Apr
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Apr 112 Prognoositud 25 Apr-27 Apr 115/115/120 90 päeva keskmine 24 Apr 107
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Apr 016/020 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/013 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 012/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Apr kuni 27 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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