Vaata esmaspäev, 12 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 103 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 588 (S15W68)
produced multiple C-class flares today. The largest was a C2/Sf
event that occurred at 12/0225Z. This region remains a reverse
polarity beta magnetic configuration. Updated LASCO imagery
indicates two separate occurrences of CME activity yesterday. A
partial halo CME was observed in response to the C9/Sf event
(erupted at 11/0419Z) that indicates potential for a glancing blow
from the likeliness of a resulting shock passage. The second, a
full halo CME first seen in C2 at 11/1154Z, was determined to be
backsided. New Region 591 (S15E01) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A shock passage
was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 12/1730Z and it
is believed to be in response to the partial halo CME that was
associated with the C2 flare that occurred on 09/2040Z. Once again,
the IMF Bz remained predominantly northward and the geomagnetic
response was weak. Solar wind speeds peaked at near 540 km/s
shortly after the shock passage and has decreased to approximately
440 km/s at the time of this writing. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 11/1135Z, peaked at 35 pfu at 11/1845Z,
and ended at 12/0405Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Minor storm
conditions may occur on 13 April in response to a shock passage from
yesterdays C9 flare and the associated partial halo CME. 14 and 15
April should see a return to predominantly unsettled levels with the
potential for active conditions, mostly in high latitude nighttime
sectors.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Aprkuni 15 Apr
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Apr 091 Prognoositud 13 Apr-15 Apr 095/100/105 90 päeva keskmine 12 Apr 109
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Apr 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Apr kuni 15 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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