Vaata esmaspäev, 5 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 096 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 588 (S15E25)
produced numerous B-class flares during the period, and the region
produced an M1.7/1f flare at 05/0555 UTC. A Type II radio sweep
(with a speed of 836 km/s) was observed shortly after the M1.7
flare, and LASCO imagery indicated a partial-halo CME emerging from
the southeast limb at 0606 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of
approximately 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be directed
towards Earth, but it may provide a glancing blow to the geomagnetic
field. Region 588 has developed a north-south orientation and
increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. New
Region 589 (N10E54) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 588 and 587 (S14W31) may produce C- and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. ACE
data indicate that Earth's geomagnetic field came under the
influence of a corotating interaction region late on 4 November.
Solar wind speed at ACE began to steadily increase to around 450
km/s at the end of the period, possibly indicating the beginning
effects of a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor storm
conditions on days one and two (6-7 November) from the effects of
the coronal hole. Activity should subside on day three (8 November)
to unsettled levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Apr 109 Prognoositud 06 Apr-08 Apr 110/110/105 90 päeva keskmine 05 Apr 111
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr 012/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 018/020-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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