Vaata kolmapäev, 3 märts 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 063 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Mar 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and
a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb,
beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was
probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth
and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped
polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to low for
the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce
additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04
March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in
activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Markuni 06 Mar
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Mar 090 Prognoositud 04 Mar-06 Mar 095/095/100 90 päeva keskmine 03 Mar 111
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Mar 012/016 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Mar kuni 06 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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