Vaata teisipäev, 13 jaanuar 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 013 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Jan 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 536 (S12W18)
produced several low level C-class flares during the period.
Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to
exit the west solar limb. Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 0609Z. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains
intact. Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the
solar east limb. A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in
the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation
of the region onto the disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage
that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z. The M-class
activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this
event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Jankuni 16 Jan
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Jan 118 Prognoositud 14 Jan-16 Jan 125/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 13 Jan 137
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Jan 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Jan kuni 16 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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