Vaata reede, 28 november 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 332 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Nov 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Flare
production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period.
Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3
x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z. This region underwent a
slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot
group over the past 24 hours. Region 507 (N07W56) produced a
single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z. No
significant changes were observed in this group during the period.
Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z. This
region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday
while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured
complex. Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at
higher latitudes. A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated
active periods.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Novkuni 01 Dec
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Nov 168 Prognoositud 29 Nov-01 Dec 170/165/150 90 päeva keskmine 28 Nov 135
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 004/015-008/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Nov kuni 01 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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