Vaata teisipäev, 25 november 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 329 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Nov 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 508 (S16W06) and 510 (S22E50). Region 508
continues to slowly decay, but still maintains moderate complexity.
Region 501 (N04W85), which produced several M-class flares early in
its rotation across the visible disk, is making a quiet exit around
the west limb. Region 507 (N09W14) maintains considerable size and
complexity, but was quiet again this period. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region. New Regions 511
(S14E24) and 512 (N06E31) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 507 and 508, though relatively quiet over the
past several days, still maintain potential for isolated M-class
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a moderate high speed
solar wind stream from a well positioned coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The most disturbed periods are expected on 26
November due to high speed coronal hole flow. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 27 and 28 November, with
occasional high latitude active periods.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Novkuni 28 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Nov 171 Prognoositud 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/160/160 90 päeva keskmine 25 Nov 133
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Nov 015/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Nov kuni 28 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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