Vaata reede, 3 oktoober 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 276 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Oct 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region
contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots
in this group were redefined as a separate active region and
assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was
noted this period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class
flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is
slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5
and -5 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated
active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly
unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal
hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Octkuni 06 Oct
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Oct 120 Prognoositud 04 Oct-06 Oct 120/120/115 90 päeva keskmine 03 Oct 120
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Oct 004/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/017 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/010-005/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Oct kuni 06 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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