Vaata pühapäev, 7 september 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Sep 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 250 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Sep 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long-duration C5 flare
occurred at 07/1407Z in Region 450 (S17W63). This flare was
characterized in H-alpha imagery by several prolonged bright kernels
in ribbon form along a thin NW-SE filament. This event appeared to
trigger a large 19 degree filament eruption near S38W18. Minor
centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this event, and LASCO
imagery revealed a large CME in progress. The X-ray flux was still
considerably enhanced by the end of the period. Region 450 is a
small, simple beta group in decay. The remaining active regions
were either stable or in decay.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The current X-ray flux levels are elevated following
today's eruption, but are expected to return to the pre-flare
background level early in the period. Very isolated low C-class
flares are possible.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
declined to below 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurring high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce active
to minor storm periods on days two and three. Activity on day three
may be further enhanced by transient material from today's CME off
the SW limb.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Sepkuni 10 Sep
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Sep 108 Prognoositud 08 Sep-10 Sep 100/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 07 Sep 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 012/012-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Sep kuni 10 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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