Vaata laupäev, 19 juuli 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jul 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 200 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Jul 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 410 (S12W13) and 412
(N16W20) produced several low C-class flares over the past 24 hours.
Region 410 continues to develop at a considerable pace in both size
and magnetic complexity. Region 412 is developing at a slower rate,
but also has significant complexity in a compact spot group. New
Region 415 (N13E30) was numbered today and produced a small C-class
flare at 19/1734Z. Region 409 (N15W08) continues to simplify and
decay. Remaining regions were stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity from
Regions 410 and 412.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with isolated
minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. Solar wind speed
began a gradual rise from near 500 km/s midway through the period to
approximately 650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active periods through
day one with isolated minor storm periods possible. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on days two and three with isolated
active periods likely.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Julkuni 22 Jul
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Jul 146 Prognoositud 20 Jul-22 Jul 150/155/155 90 päeva keskmine 19 Jul 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Jul 011/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Jul 020/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Jul kuni 22 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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