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Vaata esmaspäev, 23 juuni 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 174 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Jun 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03), and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region 387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Junkuni 26 Jun
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       23 Jun 114
  Prognoositud   24 Jun-26 Jun  115/115/115
  90 päeva keskmine        23 Jun 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  020/020
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Jun kuni 26 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%25%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%30%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
Comments K-indicies The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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