Vaata teisipäev, 18 veebruar 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 049 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Feb 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 289
(N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC. The most significant
event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar
filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58.
Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not
appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 288 (N12E32) has
remained relatively stable. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17
February. The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed
to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the
source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder
magnetometer. At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very
structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual
decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Febkuni 21 Feb
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Feb 110 Prognoositud 19 Feb-21 Feb 110/110/105 90 päeva keskmine 18 Feb 146
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Feb 018/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Feb kuni 21 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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