Vaata reede, 14 veebruar 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Feb 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 045 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Feb 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an
impulsive M1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 14/0918Z from Region 284
(N12W95) which was spotless upon exiting the disk. Several lesser
C-class flares also occurred from this region throughout the period.
Region 282 (N10W58) has shown some growth in white-light spot
coverage and magnetic complexity during the interval, although it
produced only minor flare activity. Regions 276 (S14W90) and 280
(S04W81) were responsible for the remainder of the minor flare
activity seen today. New Region 287 (N12W50) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the
period the solar wind speed began a gradual increase to a current
500 km/s rise, this, along with frequent periods of southward Bz
allowed for the active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible, especially at high latitudes,
beginning on day one due to a large recurrent coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Febkuni 17 Feb
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Feb 131 Prognoositud 15 Feb-17 Feb 130/125/125 90 päeva keskmine 14 Feb 149
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Feb 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Feb kuni 17 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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