Vaata teisipäev, 4 veebruar 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Feb 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 035 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Feb 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100 UTC to 04/2100 UTC: Solar activity was at low levels during the past 24 hours. Region 278 (N20E81) produced the only C-flare, a C1.4 at 04/2016 UTC. Region 276 (S13E45) continues to be the largest region on the disk with an area of 260 millionths and fairly continuous point brightenings. New regions 277 (S19E70) have produced several B-class flares, and show continual activity.IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate. Regions 276, 277, and 278 have potential for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continuation of
yesterday's enhanced flow associated with a coronal hole structure
in the northern hemisphere. Flow should return to nominal levels in
the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes briefly
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some
isolated active periods later in the day. An increase to active
levels is expected for the second day due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Febkuni 07 Feb
| Klass M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Feb 135 Prognoositud 05 Feb-07 Feb 140/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 04 Feb 154
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/019 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Feb 017/024 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Feb kuni 07 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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