Vaata pühapäev, 2 veebruar 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Feb 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 033 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Feb 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 276 (S14E66) produced
numerous C-flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was
a C2/Sf at 0334 UTC. The region appears to be an E-type sunspot
group with an area of about 240 millionths. Region 274 (S06E05)
showed some growth during the past 24 hours, and displayed
occasional brightenings but did not produce any flare level
activity. The remaining solar active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC.
The enhanced solar wind flow which was reported yesterday continued
during the past 24 hours, with speeds in the 500 to 700 km/s range
and total magnetic field around 10 to 12 nT. Occasional periods of
southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field were
associated with times of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active during the next 24 hours,
but there will probably be some periods of minor storm levels as the
current disturbance persists partway into the first day. A decrease
to mostly unsettled is expected for the second day. An increase to
unsettled to active is anticipated on the third day in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Febkuni 05 Feb
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Feb 127 Prognoositud 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/135/140 90 päeva keskmine 02 Feb 155
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/050 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/030-010/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Feb kuni 05 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
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