Vaata teisipäev, 14 jaanuar 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jan 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 014 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Jan 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 242 has now rotated
around the west limb near S07, but continues to be quite active. It
was the likely source of several small C-class flares and was
responsible for today's largest event, a C6 flare at 14/0636Z. The
largest region on the disk is Region 255 (S13W12). This region's
close proximity to Region 251 (S14W05) adds complexity, but activity
this period was limited to occasional fluctuations in the plage
field. A large prominence eruption off the SE limb was observed to
begin at around 14/1700Z. New Regions 258 (N07E56) and 259 (N13E72)
were numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a thorough analysis, but
limb activity was considerable over the past few days in the
vicinity of these newly numbered regions.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at higher latitudes. A period (04-12Z) of mostly southward
orientation in the IMF was responsible for the more disturbed
periods.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Jankuni 17 Jan
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Jan 164 Prognoositud 15 Jan-17 Jan 160/160/155 90 päeva keskmine 14 Jan 163
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Jan kuni 17 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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