Vaata reede, 29 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 333 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Nov 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Only
two C-class flares were observed, both from Region 207 (S19E44). The
largest was a C3 at 28/2244 UTC. Region 207 is the largest region on
the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration. New
Region 208 (N10E74) rotated into view today as a simple D-type
group. A CME was observed to erupt off the south pole at 0054 UTC,
but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that this was
a back-sided event.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low during the next three days. There is a chance, however,
for an isolated M-class event, with Region 207 the most likely
source region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with a few
active periods. Solar wind velocity remains enhanced and the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to have significant
intervals of weakly southward orientation. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated storm intervals. The increase is predicted
because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Novkuni 02 Dec
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Nov 141 Prognoositud 30 Nov-02 Dec 140/145/155 90 päeva keskmine 29 Nov 171
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Nov 010/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Nov 010/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Nov kuni 02 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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