Vaata esmaspäev, 11 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 315 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Nov 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69)
produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at
11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was
accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have
simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively
quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the
disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class
flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC
and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The
arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09
November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible
on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images
received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare
mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability
forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified
in tomorrow's forecast product.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Novkuni 14 Nov
| Klass M | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Nov 185 Prognoositud 12 Nov-14 Nov 180/175/170 90 päeva keskmine 11 Nov 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Nov 012/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Nov kuni 14 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 60% | 40% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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