Vaata teisipäev, 29 oktoober 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Oct 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 302 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Oct 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1/Sf at 0320 UTC from Region 162 (N25W72). The group
produced additional subflares throughout the day including a C9/Sf
at 1633 UTC. The penumbral area that contained the delta
configuration yesterday appears to be breaking up today. Region 173
(S18W82), which emerged yesterday, continued to develop and produced
numerous subflares during the latter half of the day. New Region 175
(N15E57) was assigned today and produced a C8/Sf at 1530 UTC. New
regions 174 (S25E55) and 176 (N13E75) were also assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare
activity from Region 162.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 0900-1200
UTC. The high speed coronal hole solar wind stream showed signs of
decline throughout the day and nominal solar wind plasma parameters
were observed by forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Octkuni 01 Nov
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Oct 162 Prognoositud 30 Oct-01 Nov 160/160/165 90 päeva keskmine 29 Oct 176
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Oct 010/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Oct 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Oct kuni 01 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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