Vaata laupäev, 14 september 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 257 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Sep 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Analysis of recent data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18). Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots previously included in Region 105. Region 114 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining indicating continued decay of this region. Region 105 produced several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during the period. H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day. The remaining numbered regions were quiet. New Region 115 (S03E45) was also assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Sepkuni 17 Sep
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       14 Sep 207
  Prognoositud   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
  90 päeva keskmine        14 Sep 176
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Sep kuni 17 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm01%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%20%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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