Vaata kolmapäev, 11 september 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Sep 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 254 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Sep 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 105 (S09E28)
produced the largest event of the period, an M2/2b flare at 11/0735
UTC with an associated tenflare (230 sfu). Region 107 (N11E30) was
a source of several C-class flares during the period, and Region 100
(S19W64) also produced a C-class flare. Region 103 (N14W33) has
remained quiescent, but appears somewhat more compact today and
retains moderate magnetic complexity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels for the next three days. Region 105 is a likely
source of further M-class activity. Regions 103 and 107 may become
more active during the period and could produce M-class flares as
well.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field conditions have ranged from quiet to major storm
levels. Onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects have been
evident since about 11/0900 UTC, and the single period of major
storm conditions observed at higher latitudes occurred shortly
thereafter. The remainder of the day had conditions in the
unsettled to minor storm range.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours.
Isolated minor storm conditions may also occur, especially at higher
latitudes. Conditions are expected to be in the quiet to unsettled
range by the end of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Sepkuni 14 Sep
| Klass M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Sep 216 Prognoositud 12 Sep-14 Sep 220/220/225 90 päeva keskmine 11 Sep 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Sep 014/024 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Sep 020/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 018/018-015/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Sep kuni 14 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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