Vaata esmaspäev, 9 september 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Sep 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 252 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Sep 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E54)
produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC. This
event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103
(N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class
flares earlier in the day. Region 105 is the largest spot group on
the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for the next three days. Region 105 is a
likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also
produce an isolated major flare. Region 103 is undergoing some
growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days. An
evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated
active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole
effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second
and third days of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Sepkuni 12 Sep
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Sep 206 Prognoositud 10 Sep-12 Sep 210/220/225 90 päeva keskmine 09 Sep 171
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Sep 019/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Sep kuni 12 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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