Vaata pühapäev, 4 august 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 216 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Aug 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was high due to a long duration M6 x-ray
event at 0955 UTC. The event was associated with activity behind the
southwest limb in cotemporaneous solar image data. A faint CME could
be seen in LASCO images associated with the flare with an
approximate plane-of-sky speed of 500 km/s. The CME does not appear
to have any earthward component. The remainder of today's solar
activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. With the departure
of Regions 39, 44, and 50, Region 57 is now the dominant sunspot
group on the disk. Region 57 has shown growth over the past 24 hours
and possesses some magnetic complexity. The group produced
occasional subflare activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate over the next three days. There is a very slight
chance, however, that one of the regions behind west limb could
produce another major flare or proton producing event. Of the
regions on the disk, Region 57 shows the best potential for
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
period of moderately negative Bz in the solar wind occurred from
about 2300-0300 UTC and led to active to minor storm conditions from
0000-0900 UTC. The source of the enhanced Bz is uncertain, but may
be related to a solar sector boundary crossing from towards
orientation to an away orientation which occurred during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a
possibility, however, for some isolated active periods on the third
and fourth days as a coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Augkuni 07 Aug
| Klass M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Aug 151 Prognoositud 05 Aug-07 Aug 150/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 04 Aug 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/020 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Aug 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 010/010-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Aug kuni 07 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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