Vaata neljapäev, 1 august 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 213 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Aug 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 44 (S21W62)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 01/1707 UTC. Region 44 appeared to be
relatively stable maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 50 (S08W45) was very active, producing seven C-Class events.
The largest of these events was a C5/Sf flare at 01/0520 UTC.
Region 39(S15W58) continues to show gradual decay and has simplified
to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 57 (S08E02) and Region 58 (S05E72).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 39, Region 44, and Region 50 have
the potential for M-class events. Region 39 and Region 50 have a
chance of producing a major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one period
of minor storm conditions. A shock passage was observed by the
NASA/ACE spacecraft at 01/0425 UTC and a corresponding 26 nT sudden
impulse was recorded at 01/0511 UTC on the Boulder magnetometer.
This sudden impulse was followed by active to minor storm
conditions.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A negative polarity coronal hole
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on day two of the
forecast period. There is a chance of active conditions due to the
effects of the coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Augkuni 04 Aug
| Klass M | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| Klass X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Prooton | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Aug 193 Prognoositud 02 Aug-04 Aug 185/180/170 90 päeva keskmine 01 Aug 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Aug 017/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/015-012/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Aug kuni 04 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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