Vaata esmaspäev, 29 juuli 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 210 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Jul 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44 (S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at 28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39 (S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period. Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI) at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following the SI.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Julkuni 01 Aug
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       29 Jul 234
  Prognoositud   30 Jul-01 Aug  235/230/230
  90 päeva keskmine        29 Jul 166
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  013/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Jul kuni 01 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%25%40%
Väike torm15%05%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%30%45%
Väike torm20%20%25%
Suur-tõsine torm10%01%15%

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