Vaata kolmapäev, 12 juuni 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 163 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Jun 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Optically verified using EIT imagery, Region 9987 (S15W56) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 12/0903 UTC. This region underwent slight decay today. Less penumbral coverage seen in trailing cluster of spots, although region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 9991 (S22E04) showed slight growth in penumbral coverage during the period. Other than occasional point brightening and minor dark surging, this region was stable through the period. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 450 km/s occurred at 12/0145 UTC. Source region of the sweep is believed to have originated from beyond the northeast limb of the visible disk. Regions 9996 (S27E46), 9997 (N08E73), and 9998 (N15E74) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Day three of the forecast period may experience isolated active conditions in response to a southern hemispheric high speed stream coronal hole becoming favorably positioned.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Junkuni 15 Jun
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       12 Jun 142
  Prognoositud   13 Jun-15 Jun  145/145/155
  90 päeva keskmine        12 Jun 180
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/012
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Jun kuni 15 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%10%20%
Väike torm01%01%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%25%
Väike torm05%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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