Vaata esmaspäev, 27 mai 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 27 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 147 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 May 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9957 (N10W73) produced an M2/2f flare at 27/1810 UTC associated with minor discrete radio emission. Gradual decay may have continued in this region, but it was difficult to tell given limb foreshortening effects. However, it appeared that a weak delta persisted within its northern cluster of spots. Region 9961 (S22W30) produced isolated subflares as it continued to decay. Region 9970 (N05E41) appeared to stabilize as a simply-structured D-type spot group. Active surging and subflare activity was observed on the southeast limb near SE17. This limb activity may indicate the active return of old Region 9934 (S16, L = 211). A filament erupted from the northeast quadrant around midday. The eruption was associated with C2 X-ray event and a CME off the northeast limb. The CME did not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare during the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare as well.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to quiet to active levels with minor storm conditions observed at some high latitude stations. This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual rise in velocities during the period with peak velocities in the 700 to 800 km/sec range.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Quiet to active conditions are expected during the first half of the period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event until 29 May.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Maykuni 30 May
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X05%05%01%
Prooton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       27 May 187
  Prognoositud   28 May-30 May  180/180/180
  90 päeva keskmine        27 May 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 May  009/010
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 27 May  017/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 May kuni 30 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%25%
Väike torm15%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%35%30%
Väike torm20%12%12%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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