Vaata pühapäev, 26 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 146 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9961
(S21W17) produced a C4/Sf flare at 26/1356 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the period. It appeared to simplify and may have
lost the delta in its intermediate spots. Region 9963 (N14W03)
showed minor spot growth, but remained simply-structured. It
produced a C-class subflare early in the period. Region 9957
(N10W58) was quiet as it continued to gradually decay and simplify.
However, a weak delta magnetic configuration persisted within its
northern spots. Region 9960 (N15W30) was quiet as it slowly decayed
and simplified. New Region 9970 (N05E54) emerged just to the south
of Region 9969 (N09E55). It appeared to be in a growth phase as it
produced occasional subflares.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare. There is a slight chance for major flare
activity during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Maykuni 29 May
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 May 183 Prognoositud 27 May-29 May 180/180/175 90 päeva keskmine 26 May 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 May 003/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 May 005/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 007/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 May kuni 29 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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