Vaata teisipäev, 21 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 141 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C4/Sf from Region 9960 (N14E35). A
comparison of white light and magnetogram data indicate that this
region has a small delta configuration. Region 9961 (N14E35) also
produced some C-class subflares today and shows a compact delta in
the leading part of the group. Region 9957 (N09E08) continues to be
the largest group on the disk and also possesses a delta. However,
this region was quiet and stable today, and is beginning to show
signs of decay.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
energetic flare activity are 9957 and 9961, although 9960 could
contribute an isolated M-class event. There is a slight chance for
an X-class flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was one
period of active conditions from 0600-0900 UTC at high latitudes.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. There is a slight chance for some isolated active periods on
day two (due to the CME of 19/2026 UTC) and on day three due to
possible coronal hole effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Maykuni 24 May
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 May 186 Prognoositud 22 May-24 May 180/180/175 90 päeva keskmine 21 May 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 May 008/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 May 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/010-012/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 May kuni 24 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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