Vaata kolmapäev, 24 aprill 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 114 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Apr 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional
C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4/1n at 24/1605 UTC from
Region 9912 (N09W51). Region 9912 showed gradual decay, mostly in
its trailer spots. Region 9913 (S16W44) produced occasional
subflares, a few of which reached C-class. It showed minor growth as
well as a minor mix of polarities. Region 9914 (N04E04) showed
gradual growth, but remained simply-structured. New Region 9924
(S17W07) emerged rapidly and produced isolated subflares. It was a
relatively small D- type spot group with minor polarity mixing
throughout. New Region 9923 (S03W31) was also numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are
possible during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC
continued. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 24.0 PFU
and gradually decreasing as the period ended.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April
increasing to unsettled to active levels on 27 April due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end early in the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Aprkuni 27 Apr
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Apr 177 Prognoositud 25 Apr-27 Apr 180/180/185 90 päeva keskmine 24 Apr 198
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Apr 021/022 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Apr kuni 27 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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