Vaata neljapäev, 18 aprill 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 108 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Apr 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred
over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious
source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the
limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown
some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911
(S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare
in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in
response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE
solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The
geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater
than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux
(24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18
April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19
April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major
storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this
CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period.
Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906
generates a major flare.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Aprkuni 21 Apr
| Klass M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Apr 188 Prognoositud 19 Apr-21 Apr 180/175/170 90 päeva keskmine 18 Apr 201
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Apr 027/041 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Apr 045/050 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Apr kuni 21 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 50% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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