Vaata teisipäev, 9 aprill 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 099 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Apr 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9899 (N18E33) produced an M2/2b flare at 09/0042 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 552 km/s. The CME activity associated with this event did not appear to be earth-directed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region continues to show slow growth in magnetic complexity, evidenced by the addition of satellite spots and penumbral development. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 09/1302 UTC that went optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N19W00) was again, quiescent today, showing no significant activity or appreciable changes from yesterday. However, the delta magnetic spot in this region remains intact. Region 9887 (N04W82) didn't produce any optically correlated flare activity today although an eruptive prominence on the leading edge of region occurred at 09/0720 UTC. This region appears to be in decay as it exits the disk. New region 9904 (S16W07) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux remains slightly elevated, although well below event threshold.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly at quiet levels through the forecast period. A slight chance of isolated active periods exists late on day three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some flanking shock effects from the CME mentioned in IA.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Aprkuni 12 Apr
Klass M60%60%60%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       09 Apr 205
  Prognoositud   10 Apr-12 Apr  200/195/185
  90 päeva keskmine        09 Apr 203
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/005
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/004
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Apr kuni 12 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%20%
Väike torm01%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%20%
Väike torm01%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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