Vaata teisipäev, 19 märts 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Mar 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 078 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Mar 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S10W59)
produced a long duration M1/1f flare at 19/1144 UTC. Two partial
halo CMEs in rapid succession occurred along with this event, with
an estimated plane of sky speed for the combined ejecta in the range
of 700-750 km/s. Region 9866 has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 9874 (N18E21) and Region 9875 (S18E63).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9866 and Region 9871 have the potential for
M-class events. There is a slight possibility for an isolated
X-class or proton event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels Minor storm
levels were observed early in the day, due to a three hour period of
sustained southward Bz during 0200-0500 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton event remains in progress, with a maximum flux of 53 pfu
observed at 19/0650 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Active conditions are expected on
day one from effects of the CME on 18 March. Activity is expected
to subside during day two. By day three, effects from the CME
activity discussed in section 1A above are expected to result in
predominantly active conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Markuni 22 Mar
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Mar 175 Prognoositud 20 Mar-22 Mar 175/175/170 90 päeva keskmine 19 Mar 214
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Mar 009/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/020-012/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Mar kuni 22 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
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