Vaata esmaspäev, 14 jaanuar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 014 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Jan 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an
evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.
M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n
from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region
9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the
visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat
as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and
magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)
exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity
during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity
is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream
effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane
with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.
Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were
enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of
particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result
in above-threshold events during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Jankuni 17 Jan
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Prooton | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Jan 229 Prognoositud 15 Jan-17 Jan 235/240/240 90 päeva keskmine 14 Jan 224
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-007/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Jan kuni 17 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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